June 12, 2018

The Gap between Active Listings and Sales is Huge!

When it comes to Real estate in Newmarket, Ontario there is certainly a trend that has been going on for the past year, which is a huge disparity between active listings and actual unit sales per month.

From the lower graph, you can see that the shear level of active listings reported at the end of each month is far greater than any year previously reported.

These figures go back to January 2011, where you can see it was a pretty stable up and down in listing volume, depending on the time of year, and the sales seemed to also follow a similar pattern… until April 2017.

April 2017 was an extraordinary month in GTA, and Newmarket Real Estate, as it was the culmination of several things, which hit the market hard.

  1. The Liberal Government announced the Foreign Buyer tax on April 20, 2017. While this was considered a small hit to a small number of buyers, but was also the exact date that most GTA Real estate agents will tell you the market stopped.
  2. Prices had reached an insane peak, increasing nearly 50% from 2016… which is obviously not sustainable.
  3. Several foreign nations had a surge of cash leaving their countries for the previous 12 months, like Iran & China, to place capital in markets considered much safer than their home markets.
  4. Cheap Interest Rates

One can argue that the timing on the foreign buyer tax was ill advised, but the government was just trying to slow down the red hot market, to avoid a crash.. either way, we are where we are now, but a lot of things changed the day of the announcement.

Very interesting graph to show the Active Listings vs. Sales and how it effected the prices quickly last year…
With the huge gap in active listings and sales, I’m still worried we are not done with further prices drops though as Sellers who are motivated price their homes to sell quickly over the competition…

Word to the wise, don’t “try” a price to test the market… your first week on the market is the most important and if you price it wrong out of the gate, you lose the edge of being a new listing.

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Posted by dtoombs at 6:36 AM


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