March 12, 2018

Canadian Household Debt is Compromising the Banking System

Excepts from an article in REP online by Armina Ligaya of the Associate Press:

Canadians’ collective household debt has climbed to $1.8 trillion as an international financial group sounds an early warning that the country’s banking system is at risk from rising debt levels.

The country’s credit-to-GDP gap is 9.6, above the group’s critical red zone threshold of nine. This indicator measures the gap between the country’s credit-to-GDP ratio and the overall long-term trend over time _ a widening of which can indicate a possible financial imbalance. Canada is one of four countries in the red zone on this metric along with Hong Kong, China and Switzerland, at 30.7 per cent, 16.7 per cent and 16.3 per cent, respectively. The United States, for comparison, is -6.9

As well, Canada’s debt-service ratio, which measures interest payments and amortizations relative to income, is at 2.9 per cent. That surpasses BIS’ critical threshold on this measure of 1.8 per cent. Canada is one of five countries in the red on this metric, again along with Hong Kong and China at 6.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. The debt-service ratio in both Russia and Turkey were also showing signs of risk, at 1.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively.

how this affects the Newmaket real estate market has yet to be seen, as there is still a lot of good employment in the area, but it’s a troubling sign as to why the government is taking, what might seem to be, some extreme measures with regards to financing requirements.

it’s harder to qualify for mortgages for many buyers which is a contributing factor for a decline in prices… as well as a switch from Sellers Market to Buyers Market.

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March 1, 2018

February Market Data is in for Newmarket... here is a peek

February numbers are in for all of Newmarket:
– 81 Sales
– $744,316 Average Price (all housing types)
– $715,000 Median Price (all types)
– 46 Detached Sales ($878,096 Average Price)
– 14 Semi-Detached
– 7 Townhomes
– 14 Condo’s

For reference against February 2016 numbers (because 2017 figures are not a great comparison… it was a wacko year)
– 122 Sales
– $721,937 Average Price (all types)
– $695,000 Median Price
– 87 Detached Sales ($813,170 average price)
– 16 Semi-Detached
– 9 Townhomes
– 20 Condo’s

AS you can see from the numbers above, it’s really just detached homes which have seen the most significant slow down.

I’ll be working on the market report over the next couple of days, and if you want to subscribe to receive it in your inbox, signup here: http://eepurl.com/0vv4n

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March 1, 2018

Follow up: Slow Sales in Newmarket

Follow up note to my previous blog post:
what concerns me for my clients looking to sell and buy this year, is the number of new listings coming online, and the wave of new listings I am expecting in the coming weeks (after march break especially).
 
I see it this way. You have 3 options:
  1. sell first and then go shopping, or
  2. you make an offer that is conditional upon your home selling, or
  3. Buy a home and then sell your home.
Here’s the pros/cons with each:
  1. SELL FIRST: You might sell and not have a home to buy… But, you will know how much equity you have coming out of your home and are in a VERY strong position when negotiating your purchase. Worst case scenario, you look to rent something temporarily, and continue looking for a home to buy… further downside to that would be prices to increase while you are renting and it becomes harder to buy something you really like.
  2. CONDITIONAL OFFER: You typically have to “buy” that condition, meaning you need to pay more than you would if you didn’t have a condition for the sale of your home, as the Sellers are not going to be as interested in a ‘conditional offer’, but you also have the least amount of risk in this scenario… provided the Seller i willing to play ball.
  3. BUY FIRST: When you buy before you sell, you are typically buying a home you really want, and are typically feeling like you are not settling for anything either, plus you can also typically negotiate a better price than if you had to make an offer that is conditional upon your home selling, but you will be in a MUST SELL position if you can’t carry both homes, which can be stressful, especially if prices are declining.
Why I mention all of this is because I have concerns about the direction prices may be going with the expected wave of New Listings coming along with the FACT that the volume of sales has not caught up. I don’t say this to scare people into not buying, as you should do what makes sense for you or your families needs, but rather provide a little insight/forecast for what I expect to happen with the market factors at play:
  • Increasing interest rates
  • Supply outweigh demand
  • The biggest factor: Prices have decreased to the south of Newmarket, which means buyers who were forced north due to budget constraints last year can now buy in their preferred areas. This will also be a big reason why I can also see communities like Holland Landing, Mt. Albert, Queensville & Keswick see prices also decrease. (Someone who has $800,000 to buy a large 4-bedroom home was somewhat forced to look to Keswick, but now can find a home in Newmarket for that budget, which may be preferable for their family lifestyle).
Again, I’m not predicting a big decline in prices, but I also don’t expect the prices to spike up anytime soon either, unless it’s in a high desirable neighbourhood and the home shows extremely well.
 
Time will tell if I’m right or wrong!
If you want to talk about your Buy/Sell position, don’t hesitate to talk

If you would like to receive my market newsletter, “THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report” directly in your inbox each and every month, CLICK HERE. I promise you will never be spammed by me 😉

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February 28, 2018

Newmarket home sales slow in February

Today is the last day of February. It’s been a slow month for sales in Newmarket, Ontario with only 78 total sales for all housing types.
Here is a few past years February numbers for reference:
2018 – 78 (to date)
2017 – 153
2016 – 122
2015 – 115
2014 – 97
2013 – 108
 
Now the month is not over yet, and there is certainly going to be more sales reported today, but this is a sign that the market has shifted and those looking to sell need to realize that as they will be competing with other new listings in the coming weeks that will likely be priced to sell.
 
*Note: These figures are just Newmarket, but the figures roughly translate the same way across upper York Region, and South Simcoe*

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January 29, 2018

18 Highcastle Ave, keswick - 2+1 bedroom bungalow

Looking for a bungalow in North Keswick?

You better check this one out asap! Listed @ $549,900, this home is expected to sell quickly as the demand for bungalows is still red hot… especially when they are in this condition!

For more info, visit the property listing:

18 Highcastle ave, Keswick

 

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January 5, 2018

December 2017 Market report is coming!

Just putting the finishing touches on the December 2017 copy of my report, THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report.

Click on the image below to review the cover page of the latest report.

If you would like to get a copy ssent to your inbox every month, click here to sign up:

www.newmarketrereport.ca

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November 21, 2017

3D Tour available on this new listing - 115 Carlson Drive

If you are interested in virtually touring this home, click on the link to view the 3D tour, professional video & the full photo gallery.

For complete details, visit: https://darcytoombs.ca/properties/115-carlson-drive-newmarket/

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September 11, 2017

Slightly Improved Go-Train schedule for Newmarket

With all the growth we have seen in York Region and South Simcoe, commuting the Toronto is becoming more and more a challenge, with increased cars on the road. It has become a bit of a daunting commute for those who line in Newmarket that commute to the downtown core of Toronto. Thankfully the powers that be at MetroLink have listened to the residents of Newmarket/Aurora and made a few slight changes to the Barrie Go-Train line and added a few more trains both Southbound and Northbound.

There is now 8 trains leaving for Toronto in the morning, with the first Newmarket departure leaving the GoTrain station, at the Tannery mall on Davis Drive, at 6:03am. The next trains leaves a half hour later, at 6:33am, then there are 4 trains in a row in 15 minute increments (6:48am, 7:03am, 7:18am, 7:33am), and then 2 more trains with a half hour gap at 8:03am & 8:33am (final Southbound train).

Northbound also has a total of 8 trains, with different departure increments from Union Station, beginning at 3:40pm, then 4:10pm, 4:40pm, 5:05pm, 5:35pm, 6:05pm, 6:35pm, 7:05pm.

See the pictures to view the departure and corresponding arrival times.

The Newmarket GoTrain station is located at the Tannery Mall, which has a municipal address of 465 Davis Drive, Newmarket. There is 265 parking spaces and has wheel chair accessible train access. If you miss the train, there is also a GoBus that comes by the station, but is not as frequent.

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September 8, 2017

Fall Home Maintenance List

This Fall Home Maintenance Checklist is brought to you by one of my trusted Home Inspectors, Steve Lawson, of Pillar To Post Home Inspections. 

The days are getting noticeably shorter, and maybe there’s a nip in the air – sure signs that fall is on its way. Now is the perfect time to get your home in shape before winter rolls in, while the weather is still pleasant enough for spending time outdoors.

Seal it up: Caulk and seal around exterior door and window frames. Look for gaps where pipes or wiring enter the home and caulk those as well. Not only does heat escape from these openings, but water can enter and may eventually cause mold problems and even structural damage.

Look up: Check the roof for missing or damaged shingles. Winter weather can cause serious damage to a vulnerable roof, leading to a greater chance of further damage inside the home. Although you should always have a qualified professional inspect and repair the roof, you can do a preliminary survey from the ground using binoculars.

Clear it out: Clear gutters and eaves troughs of leaves, sticks, and other debris. Consider installing leaf guards if your gutters can accommodate them – they are real time savers and can prevent damage from clogged gutters. Check the seams between sections of gutter, as well as between the gutter and downspouts, and make any necessary adjustments or repairs.

No hose: In climates with freezing weather, drain garden hoses and store them indoors to protect them from the elements. Shut off outdoor faucets and make sure exterior pipes are drained of water. Faucets and pipes can easily freeze and burst, causing leaks and potentially serious water damage.

Warm up time: Have the furnace inspected to ensure it’s safe and in good working order. Most utility companies will provide basic inspections at no charge, but there can often be a long waiting list come fall and winter. Replace disposable furnace air filters or clean the permanent type according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Using a clean filter will help the furnace run more efficiently, saving you money and energy.

Light that fire: If you enjoy the crackle of a wood-burning fireplace on a chilly fall evening, have the firebox and chimney professionally cleaned before lighting a fire this season. Creosote, a byproduct of wood burning, can build up to dangerous levels and cause a serious chimney fire if not removed

Happy Fall!!!

 

For more information on Steve Lawson:

 

The Pillar To Post Difference
  • The Pillar To Post Inspection Report is generated on site at the completion of the inspection, so your client won’t have to wait for the results.
  • All Pillar To Post inspectors carry E&O insurance to protect you, the referring agent.
  • Three different Home Inspection Packages to choose from that allow your client to select the range of services they prefer – click here to learn more.
  • As North America’s leading home inspection company, Pillar To Post is committed to providing the highest quality service to real estate professionals and their clients.

Steve Lawson
Certified Home Inspector

[email protected]
pillartopost.com/barrie
(800) 396-7678
Each office is independently owned and operated.

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August 17, 2017

August mid-month sales report: Newmarket Prices are higher!

Prices are on the rise again!
We are more than half way through August, and average prices are on higher than they were in July for Detached, Semi-Detached & Attached/Townhomes!
Volume is still well below where is was on August 17 2016, except with townhomes which has the same sales-date, but the prices have all bounced higher after a slow July.
The following is all based on data reported to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) as of 1:20pm on August 17, 2017:
Detached Homes:
So far to date this month there has been 23 sales reported, with an average sales price of $9353,682, which is up by more than $46,000 from the Average sale price in July this year. Now, these sales are quite a bit less than the 54 that were reported this time last year (Reported Sold between August 1 – August 17), but the average price is still higher by more than $47,000 than the 2016 numbers, indicating that while confidence may be coming back to the value of real estate, it’s not in the same level of urgency as it was last summer.
We also need to keep in mind that the average sale price is down by almost $250,000 from it’s April peak, which was a sharp correction as it represented a near 20% drop in the average sale price over the course of 3+ months.
I do predict detached homes to close out the month around 50 sales, which is still significantly lower than the 109 that happened in August 2016, but with 8 properties currently showing a status of Sold Conditionally (SC Status) I hope that prediction is a conservative one and the actual sales are far greater!
Semi-Detached Homes:
The mid month numbers for Semi’s look crazy, but I think thats because July was so slow! So far this month there has been 8 units reported sold this month, which is already 2 more than all of July 2017. The Average sale price is also sitting around $645,000 right now, which is more than $104,000 than the average sale price in July this year for the whole month.
Sales are strong, especially when we compare the figures against the figures of August 17 2016, where there were 6 sales reported to date, with an average price of $611,000.
Last month we had 6 sales for the whole month that were all older semi’s… this month, nearly all 8 sales have been more modern semi’s and give us a better idea of the values.
Again, July 2017 was a very slow month, and when looking at a chart, it will show a big valley that will need clarification as to why the big price drop that month.
While I do no predict we will match the August 2016 total sales for the month of 18 sales, I think we will get close, between 16-18 total sales and the average price to remain close to $645,000.
There are currently 3 Semi’s with a SC status.
Attached/Townhomes:
The sales figures for townhomes is also looking really good in comparison to July 2017. with 7 sales already reported, compared to 8 in all of July, the volume of sales shows that there is still good demand for this housing stock. The average price is also up from July this year by over $26,000, with an average sales price sitting at $681,143. That is over $92,000 higher than the average sales price in August 2016 ($588,671) when there were 14 sales for the whole month.
I am Predicting Sales should be around 13-15 sales for the whole month with the average sales price staying close to the $680,000 mark.
If you would like to receive my exclusive Market report, called “THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report” directly in your inbox each and every month, CLICK HERE.
I promise you will never be spammed by me 😉

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