June 27, 2018

Newmarket Home sales pick up in June 2018

It’s very encouraging to see the sales figures for June picking up in Newmarket. At the time of this writing, there have already been 107 sales reported this month, of all housing types, with an average sales price of $783,697 (median price of $722,500), and a few days left to add to that number.

For reference, there are the June sales figures going back to 2011:

  • 2011 – 148
  • 2012 – 173
  • 2013 – 133
  • 2014 – 167
  • 2015 – 192
  • 2016 – 216
  • 2017 – 108
  • 2018 – 107 (as of 11am June 27, 2018)

It’s also encouraging for home owners to see that the average price has jumped up by roughy $45,000 from May, as there have been 16 sales reported sold for more than $1,000,000.

Looking forward to seeing what the numbers close out the month with.

If you would like to receive THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report directly in your inbox each and every month, CLICK HERE. I promise you will never be spammed by me 😉

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June 12, 2018

The Gap between Active Listings and Sales is Huge!

When it comes to Real estate in Newmarket, Ontario there is certainly a trend that has been going on for the past year, which is a huge disparity between active listings and actual unit sales per month.

From the lower graph, you can see that the shear level of active listings reported at the end of each month is far greater than any year previously reported.

These figures go back to January 2011, where you can see it was a pretty stable up and down in listing volume, depending on the time of year, and the sales seemed to also follow a similar pattern… until April 2017.

April 2017 was an extraordinary month in GTA, and Newmarket Real Estate, as it was the culmination of several things, which hit the market hard.

  1. The Liberal Government announced the Foreign Buyer tax on April 20, 2017. While this was considered a small hit to a small number of buyers, but was also the exact date that most GTA Real estate agents will tell you the market stopped.
  2. Prices had reached an insane peak, increasing nearly 50% from 2016… which is obviously not sustainable.
  3. Several foreign nations had a surge of cash leaving their countries for the previous 12 months, like Iran & China, to place capital in markets considered much safer than their home markets.
  4. Cheap Interest Rates

One can argue that the timing on the foreign buyer tax was ill advised, but the government was just trying to slow down the red hot market, to avoid a crash.. either way, we are where we are now, but a lot of things changed the day of the announcement.

Very interesting graph to show the Active Listings vs. Sales and how it effected the prices quickly last year…
With the huge gap in active listings and sales, I’m still worried we are not done with further prices drops though as Sellers who are motivated price their homes to sell quickly over the competition…

Word to the wise, don’t “try” a price to test the market… your first week on the market is the most important and if you price it wrong out of the gate, you lose the edge of being a new listing.

If you would like to receive THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report directly in your inbox each and every month, CLICK HERE. I promise you will never be spammed by me 😉

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March 12, 2018

Canadian Household Debt is Compromising the Banking System

Excepts from an article in REP online by Armina Ligaya of the Associate Press:

Canadians’ collective household debt has climbed to $1.8 trillion as an international financial group sounds an early warning that the country’s banking system is at risk from rising debt levels.

The country’s credit-to-GDP gap is 9.6, above the group’s critical red zone threshold of nine. This indicator measures the gap between the country’s credit-to-GDP ratio and the overall long-term trend over time _ a widening of which can indicate a possible financial imbalance. Canada is one of four countries in the red zone on this metric along with Hong Kong, China and Switzerland, at 30.7 per cent, 16.7 per cent and 16.3 per cent, respectively. The United States, for comparison, is -6.9

As well, Canada’s debt-service ratio, which measures interest payments and amortizations relative to income, is at 2.9 per cent. That surpasses BIS’ critical threshold on this measure of 1.8 per cent. Canada is one of five countries in the red on this metric, again along with Hong Kong and China at 6.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. The debt-service ratio in both Russia and Turkey were also showing signs of risk, at 1.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively.

how this affects the Newmaket real estate market has yet to be seen, as there is still a lot of good employment in the area, but it’s a troubling sign as to why the government is taking, what might seem to be, some extreme measures with regards to financing requirements.

it’s harder to qualify for mortgages for many buyers which is a contributing factor for a decline in prices… as well as a switch from Sellers Market to Buyers Market.

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March 1, 2018

February Market Data is in for Newmarket... here is a peek

February numbers are in for all of Newmarket:
– 81 Sales
– $744,316 Average Price (all housing types)
– $715,000 Median Price (all types)
– 46 Detached Sales ($878,096 Average Price)
– 14 Semi-Detached
– 7 Townhomes
– 14 Condo’s

For reference against February 2016 numbers (because 2017 figures are not a great comparison… it was a wacko year)
– 122 Sales
– $721,937 Average Price (all types)
– $695,000 Median Price
– 87 Detached Sales ($813,170 average price)
– 16 Semi-Detached
– 9 Townhomes
– 20 Condo’s

AS you can see from the numbers above, it’s really just detached homes which have seen the most significant slow down.

I’ll be working on the market report over the next couple of days, and if you want to subscribe to receive it in your inbox, signup here: http://eepurl.com/0vv4n

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March 1, 2018

Follow up: Slow Sales in Newmarket

Follow up note to my previous blog post:
what concerns me for my clients looking to sell and buy this year, is the number of new listings coming online, and the wave of new listings I am expecting in the coming weeks (after march break especially).
 
I see it this way. You have 3 options:
  1. sell first and then go shopping, or
  2. you make an offer that is conditional upon your home selling, or
  3. Buy a home and then sell your home.
Here’s the pros/cons with each:
  1. SELL FIRST: You might sell and not have a home to buy… But, you will know how much equity you have coming out of your home and are in a VERY strong position when negotiating your purchase. Worst case scenario, you look to rent something temporarily, and continue looking for a home to buy… further downside to that would be prices to increase while you are renting and it becomes harder to buy something you really like.
  2. CONDITIONAL OFFER: You typically have to “buy” that condition, meaning you need to pay more than you would if you didn’t have a condition for the sale of your home, as the Sellers are not going to be as interested in a ‘conditional offer’, but you also have the least amount of risk in this scenario… provided the Seller i willing to play ball.
  3. BUY FIRST: When you buy before you sell, you are typically buying a home you really want, and are typically feeling like you are not settling for anything either, plus you can also typically negotiate a better price than if you had to make an offer that is conditional upon your home selling, but you will be in a MUST SELL position if you can’t carry both homes, which can be stressful, especially if prices are declining.
Why I mention all of this is because I have concerns about the direction prices may be going with the expected wave of New Listings coming along with the FACT that the volume of sales has not caught up. I don’t say this to scare people into not buying, as you should do what makes sense for you or your families needs, but rather provide a little insight/forecast for what I expect to happen with the market factors at play:
  • Increasing interest rates
  • Supply outweigh demand
  • The biggest factor: Prices have decreased to the south of Newmarket, which means buyers who were forced north due to budget constraints last year can now buy in their preferred areas. This will also be a big reason why I can also see communities like Holland Landing, Mt. Albert, Queensville & Keswick see prices also decrease. (Someone who has $800,000 to buy a large 4-bedroom home was somewhat forced to look to Keswick, but now can find a home in Newmarket for that budget, which may be preferable for their family lifestyle).
Again, I’m not predicting a big decline in prices, but I also don’t expect the prices to spike up anytime soon either, unless it’s in a high desirable neighbourhood and the home shows extremely well.
 
Time will tell if I’m right or wrong!
If you want to talk about your Buy/Sell position, don’t hesitate to talk

If you would like to receive my market newsletter, “THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report” directly in your inbox each and every month, CLICK HERE. I promise you will never be spammed by me 😉

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February 28, 2018

Newmarket home sales slow in February

Today is the last day of February. It’s been a slow month for sales in Newmarket, Ontario with only 78 total sales for all housing types.
Here is a few past years February numbers for reference:
2018 – 78 (to date)
2017 – 153
2016 – 122
2015 – 115
2014 – 97
2013 – 108
 
Now the month is not over yet, and there is certainly going to be more sales reported today, but this is a sign that the market has shifted and those looking to sell need to realize that as they will be competing with other new listings in the coming weeks that will likely be priced to sell.
 
*Note: These figures are just Newmarket, but the figures roughly translate the same way across upper York Region, and South Simcoe*

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January 29, 2018

18 Highcastle Ave, keswick - 2+1 bedroom bungalow

Looking for a bungalow in North Keswick?

You better check this one out asap! Listed @ $549,900, this home is expected to sell quickly as the demand for bungalows is still red hot… especially when they are in this condition!

For more info, visit the property listing:

18 Highcastle ave, Keswick

 

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January 5, 2018

December 2017 Market report is coming!

Just putting the finishing touches on the December 2017 copy of my report, THE MARKET: Newmarket’s Monthly Residential Real Estate Report.

Click on the image below to review the cover page of the latest report.

If you would like to get a copy ssent to your inbox every month, click here to sign up:

www.newmarketrereport.ca

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November 21, 2017

3D Tour available on this new listing - 115 Carlson Drive

If you are interested in virtually touring this home, click on the link to view the 3D tour, professional video & the full photo gallery.

For complete details, visit: https://darcytoombs.ca/properties/115-carlson-drive-newmarket/

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September 11, 2017

Slightly Improved Go-Train schedule for Newmarket

With all the growth we have seen in York Region and South Simcoe, commuting the Toronto is becoming more and more a challenge, with increased cars on the road. It has become a bit of a daunting commute for those who line in Newmarket that commute to the downtown core of Toronto. Thankfully the powers that be at MetroLink have listened to the residents of Newmarket/Aurora and made a few slight changes to the Barrie Go-Train line and added a few more trains both Southbound and Northbound.

There is now 8 trains leaving for Toronto in the morning, with the first Newmarket departure leaving the GoTrain station, at the Tannery mall on Davis Drive, at 6:03am. The next trains leaves a half hour later, at 6:33am, then there are 4 trains in a row in 15 minute increments (6:48am, 7:03am, 7:18am, 7:33am), and then 2 more trains with a half hour gap at 8:03am & 8:33am (final Southbound train).

Northbound also has a total of 8 trains, with different departure increments from Union Station, beginning at 3:40pm, then 4:10pm, 4:40pm, 5:05pm, 5:35pm, 6:05pm, 6:35pm, 7:05pm.

See the pictures to view the departure and corresponding arrival times.

The Newmarket GoTrain station is located at the Tannery Mall, which has a municipal address of 465 Davis Drive, Newmarket. There is 265 parking spaces and has wheel chair accessible train access. If you miss the train, there is also a GoBus that comes by the station, but is not as frequent.

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